MORGAN GEEKIE

Bruins Bend the Math with Posts and Swayman

New York carried the chance edge, but Boston’s depth finished while the iron and a flawless crease swung the opener at TD Garden.

Start with the iron: despite a marginal xG edge for New York (xGF 2.93 to Boston’s 2.83), the Bruins grabbed the leverage with two pipes worth iron xG 1.07, then converted their best looks and let Jeremy Swayman erase the rest. Swayman’s 24-for-24 with GSAx +2.70 (on xGA 2.70) turned expected goals into zero actual damage, including 10/10 on high-danger shots. Across the rink, Igor Shesterkin went 20/22 with GSAx +0.62 on xGA 2.62—solid, but Boston’s finishing beat the model.

Conversion came from depth: Fraser Minten (1G, 1A, ixG 0.22), JJ Peterka (1G, ixG 0.30), and Mark Kastelic (1G, ixG 0.21), with secondary touches from Elias Lindholm, Hampus Lindholm, and Mason Lohrei. Iron events mattered: Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha each rang one (0.53 and 0.54 iron xG), tipping variance toward Boston.

Structurally, BOS CF% 53.5 to NYR 46.5 with near-even shots (23–24) shows the Bruins nudged play while the Rangers created quality. Regression watch: Pavel Dorofeyev’s ixG 0.88 on 5 SOG and the team xG profile suggest goals are coming; Boston can’t bank on perfect goaltending every night.