Perfetti Keeps Winnipeg's Attack Breathing

On a Winnipeg Jets team scrambling for goals, Cole Perfetti has been one of the few reliable sources of offence. The question worth asking ten games in is simple: how much of it is real, and how much is the puck simply going in?

The answer is a bit of both, and the good news for Winnipeg is that the real part is the bigger part.

The finishing: running hot

Perfetti has 6 goals and 3 assists for 9 points in 10 games, logging 18.6 minutes a night. Those goals came on 28 shots, which works out to a 21.43% shooting percentage. That is a scorer's dream rate, and few players hold it for long. His shot quality tells the same story: his chances carried 5.04 expected goals -- a measure of how many goals his looks were worth -- and he has turned them into six. He is ahead of the pace his chances would suggest, but not wildly so. Expect the finishing to cool, not collapse.

The territory: genuinely strong

Here is what the box score hides. Perfetti is sitting at plus 0, which makes him look like a wash. He is anything but. When he is on the ice, the Jets have generated 15.44 expected goals against 10.47 allowed, and they have taken nearly 60% of the shot attempts. The gap gets even wider when you look at the best scoring looks: Winnipeg has piled up 85 high-danger chances with him out there against just 45 for the opposition -- almost two to one.

That is a player whose shifts are tilting the ice. If anything, the bounces have gone against him on the plus/minus side, because his on-ice results should look better than even.

The power play and the rest of his game

The man advantage has been a real piece of his production: 2 of his goals and 5 of his points have come on the power play, in about 3.1 minutes a game. Beyond the scoring, he has chipped in 15 hits, 5 takeaways against 4 giveaways, and 3 blocked shots. The one clear weak spot is the faceoff dot, where he has won just 28.6% of his draws.

What it means for the Jets

Winnipeg sits at 4-3-3 with 11 points and a minus 3 goal difference, holding the third wild-card spot in the West (1 spot outside the playoffs)-- in the race, but on thin ice. With the offence sputtering, the Jets need someone driving play, and Perfetti is doing exactly that.

The shooting percentage will likely drift down. The chances should not. If his scoring dips as the Jets head outdoors to face Montréal in the Heritage Classic, the underlying work suggests he will keep giving Winnipeg's attack its best shot at waking up.