Wild Bring the West's Best Form to a Sagging Maple Leafs Team
Toronto carries a four-game skid into a visit from the Central Division leaders, who have lost only once in regulation over their last ten.
Written before the game
The Minnesota Wild arrive in Toronto near the top of the Western Conference, and the Toronto Maple Leafs host them while sinking. Minnesota is 13-3-4 with 30 points, first in the Central and second in the West, with a goal difference of plus 21. Over their last ten, the Wild are 7-1-2, and they have been even better away from home at 8-3-2.
Toronto is 8-10-2 with 18 points and a goal difference of minus three, seventh in the Atlantic. The Leafs have lost four straight and are just 4-7-1 at home.
The gap shows up in chance quality. Over their last ten games, Minnesota's chances have been worth 3.60 expected goals per night -- expected goals measure how many goals a team's chances should produce -- while allowing chances worth 2.91. Toronto's numbers run the other way: 3.00 for, 3.21 against.
For the Leafs to make this a game, they need to create more than they give up for once, against a team that rarely lets opponents get going. For Minnesota, it is simple: keep creating the better looks and keep the Leafs' chances to a trickle.