Mirror Images Meet as Golden Knights Visit the Bruins
Vegas arrives off a home loss to New Jersey; Boston brings a near-spotless home record and the Atlantic Division lead into the matchup.
Written before the game
Put Vegas and Boston side by side over their last ten games and it is hard to tell them apart. Both teams create a lot of good looks, both give a lot back, and neither has a clear edge in how the play has gone. That pushes this one toward the details: who buries their chances, and who gets the bigger saves.
The evidence: Vegas has averaged 3.54 expected goals per game over that stretch (expected goals measure how much a team's chances are worth), while Boston sits at 3.44. At the other end the numbers are just as close. The Knights have allowed chances worth 3.21 a game and the Bruins 3.11. Shot attempts tell the same story. Both teams have been out-attempted, Vegas by 58.7 to 54.6 a game and Boston by 58 to 55.2.
The results have not been as even. Boston won 7 of those ten games and Vegas won 5. The Bruins are 10-4-1, first in the Atlantic and 6-1-0 at home, with a goal difference of plus 19. The Knights are 9-5-1, second in the Pacific at plus 9, and they come in off a 5-2 home loss to New Jersey.
What Vegas needs: finishing that matches their slight edge in chances. Jack Eichel leads the team in points, and Mitch Marner brings a points streak into the game. The Knights also have to stay out of the penalty box, because their penalty kill has been one of the league's weaker units.
What Boston needs: the same home finishing that has carried them so far, with David Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm turning chances into goals. They also need cleaner starts than the ones that forced a late rally against Chicago.
On chances alone, this is about as even as it gets.
