Bruins Catch the Bounces While Flyers and Flames Wait for Theirs

The season isn't over. It's barely a month old, but the bounces have already sorted the league into the fortunate and the forsaken, and the standings show it.

Start with the simplest way to measure luck: add a team's shooting percentage (how often its shots go in) to its save percentage (how often its goalie stops the other side's shots). Over time that total drifts toward 100. Well above it, the puck has been kind. Well below, it hasn't.

Boston sits at the top of that list at 105.5. The Bruins scored on 14 percent of their shots and stopped 91.5 percent of what came at them. That's a big reason they're 10-4-1, first in the Atlantic, with a +19 goal difference. Their latest win, a 5-4 overtime comeback over Chicago, came after they trailed by two and were badly outshot. That's the kind of night the bounces deliver.

Edmonton comes next at 104.8, almost entirely on scoring. The Oilers finished 16.5 percent of their shots, the best in the league, while their goaltending stopped 88.3 percent. That's ordinary. First in the West at 10-2-2, they've earned plenty, but the puck has gone in more often than it usually does.

Now the other end. Calgary is last at 96.6, and the Flames are 6-8-0. Philadelphia is at 97.1 and 3-8-4, and its problem is all at the other end of the ice. The Flyers' goaltending stopped 88.8 percent, better than Edmonton's, but their shooters scored on just 8.3 percent of their shots, the worst mark in the league. Chicago, at 97.2 and 4-9-1, sits right beside them.

Here's the part the standings won't tell you. Carolina has the league's best record at 11-2-2, and its luck number is a dead-average 100.4. The Hurricanes got nothing extra from the hockey gods. Their record is about as honest as records get. On the flip side, Vancouver is 3-12-1 with a near-neutral 99.6. Bad bounces don't explain that one.

Why should a fan care? When luck runs hot, close games tip your way, and wins pile up faster than the play behind them. When it runs cold, good nights end in losses. Boston and Edmonton have been good *and* fortunate. Philadelphia, Chicago and Calgary have had little go right. Over a long winter, shooting and goaltending luck tends to even out. The teams that have been winning without help, like Carolina, are the ones whose records carry the least luck.