Senators Carry the Better Chances Into a Restless Honda Center

Ottawa comes to Anaheim as the team making the better chances, and the Ducks come in as the team giving too many away. That gap is the story of this one.

Over their last ten games, the Senators have averaged 3.72 expected goals per game. Expected goals measure how many goals a team's chances were worth. Anaheim's chances against them have been worth 3.88 goals a night, the leakiest mark of the two clubs. Ottawa isn't airtight either. Its chances allowed sit at 3.17 per game, which fits the 6-5 overtime loss in Los Angeles. Even so, the Senators have been on the right side of the ledger more often.

Shot attempts tell the same tale in plainer form. Ottawa has been close to even, while the Ducks have been outshot on attempts by more than five a game.

The standings add weight. Ottawa (9-5-1, 19 points) sits fourth in the East. Anaheim (5-7-1, 11 points) holds the West's sixth wild-card spot but is just 1-4-1 at home and 3-6-1 over its last ten. If the Ducks want to fix things at the Honda Center, they have to start by keeping Ottawa from getting to the dangerous areas.