Blues Host Bruins With the Better Chances but the Worse Record

On paper this is a mismatch. Boston is 9-3-1, first in the Atlantic and second in the East with a +21 goal difference. St. Louis is 5-6-1, 10th in the West and hanging on to the final wild-card spot on a two-game losing streak.

The underlying play tells a closer story. Over their last 10 games the Bruins have won 7, but their chances and their opponents' chances have been nearly a wash. They have generated about 3.18 expected goals a night (how many goals their chances were worth) and allowed about 3.07. Boston has also been out-attempted in that stretch. It has been finishing better than its looks would suggest.

The Blues have won only 4 of their last 10, yet they have created more than they have allowed and fired more shot attempts than their opponents. Their problem has been putting the puck in the net. Jim Montgomery has reshuffled his lines, putting Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud together.

St. Louis is 3-2-1 at home. For a team clinging to a playoff spot, the question is whether its chances finally turn into goals against a Boston team whose record has outrun its play.