Flames Still Chasing the Results Their Chances Have Earned
Minnesota arrives with an uneven road record, while Calgary carries a fresh win over Carolina into a home date with the Wild.
Written before the game
Calgary's record says the season is slipping away. The chances say the Flames have been close to even with their opponents and have been punished far more than they deserve.
The Flames are 2-6-0 with a -20 goal differential, yet their 3.46 expected goals per game is almost exactly what they have allowed. Expected goals means how many goals their chances were worth. They have also been taking more shot attempts than they give up. That gap between chances and results points to missed finishes and saves that did not come, not a team being badly outplayed.
Minnesota (6-2-2, 14 points) has been even busier in attack, with chances worth 4 goals a game, and has given up less than Calgary. The catch is that the Wild are perfect at home and only 2-2-2 on the road.
For Calgary to flip the record, its finishing has to catch up to its chances. For Minnesota, its road results have to start matching its attack.