Mammoth Edge Maple Leafs 5-4 on Bounces and the Big Chances
Utah won a wild one.
Toronto actually had the better chances overall, by expected goals — how dangerous the shots were — at 2.92 to 2.72, but Utah cashed the right looks and the bounces. Three shots hit iron — Barrett Hayton, Jack Roslovic, and Logan Cooley each rang one — tilting knife‑edge moments toward the Mammoth. The shot‑attempt ledger also leaned Utah (57 to 49), a steady push that kept the game in range even when the quality was close.
Goaltending told the rest. Anthony Stolarz finished at -2.28 goals saved above expected — a metric for how many a goalie adds beyond the quality he faced — while Karel Vejmelka was at -1.08, the smaller gap that proved enough in a one‑goal game. Add in Toronto’s special‑teams edge (two on five) against Utah’s zero on four, and this still came down to finishing and a few pipes.
For Utah, Mikhail Sergachev and Dylan Guenther each posted a goal and a helper. Auston Matthews and John Tavares matched two points for Toronto, but the margins broke the Mammoth’s way.
