Lightning Lean on Carlson and Hildeby to Edge Wild
Tampa Bay had the better looks and the puck on its stick more often, and it paid off in a 3-2 win that felt sturdier than the score. The Lightning carried the edge in shot attempts and owned a slight majority of expected goals — the model that values chance quality — at 53.6 percent.
The headline punch came from John Carlson, who buried two while firing nine shots. That volume fit the flow Tampa created, not a one-off heater, and it turned territorial pressure into a real lead. Nikita Kucherov drove the setup game with two helpers, while Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli kept the middle six pushing; Cirelli added the other Tampa goal.
This stayed close because both goalies were sharp. Dennis Hildeby posted plus‑0.90 in goals saved above expected — how many he stole compared with average — and Jesper Wallstedt was positive as well at plus‑0.35. Minnesota’s push came from Quinn Hughes (a goal and an assist) and Blake Coleman’s steady shot volume. Each side struck once on the power play, and with no help from the posts, the difference was Tampa’s chance edge and finish from its top pieces.