VICTOR HEDMAN

Lightning veterans meet a new wrinkle

A small late-week dip in chance share hints at special-teams slippage and thin depth behind the stars.

Tampa Bay entered the year expecting the old core to still carry play. When that edge softened late in the week, it wasn’t a collapse so much as a tell: the margin for error is smaller now.

The Lightning’s expected goals for share dipped to a touch over half from a bit higher on the season, which on its own isn’t fatal. What it exposed was where the machine leaks. The power play didn’t cash — the listed power‑play rate sits at 0 — so empty man-advantage turns gave back momentum. On the other side, the penalty kill at 75% put more strain on the goalies. Pair that with a team save percentage of 87 and a shooting percentage of 7.3, and you’ve got a club that can out-chance teams slightly and still feel like it’s climbing uphill when the whistle goes.

For Jon Cooper, that nudges decisions: lean into units that win the net-front on the power play, and find a third line that can finish. For the vets — think Victor Hedman and the defensive group — the question is summer-simple: how do they cut the PK goals against without sacrificing the five-on-five edge that still tilts their way at 53.3% for expected goals?