Lightning Bring a Road Question to Winnipeg's Barn

Tampa Bay arrives as the better team on paper and on the ice lately, but this trip asks a different question: can the Lightning play their home game away from home? They are 8-0-0 at Amalie Arena and just 3-3-2 on the road.

Over their last ten games, the Lightning have created chances worth about 4.03 expected goals a night (expected goals measure how many goals a team's chances were worth), while giving up chances worth about 3 at the other end. They have also out-attempted opponents by a wide margin, and they are 7-1-2 in their last ten with three straight wins.

Winnipeg's problem shows up at both ends, but more so in its own zone. The Jets have given away better chances than they create over the same ten games, and they also allow more shot attempts than they generate. That fits a minus 15 goal difference and a 2-7-1 run, even with two straight wins.

The stakes are real. At 6-8-3, Winnipeg is 12th in the West, clinging to the last wild-card slot. Tampa Bay won the first meeting 6-4; the Jets need to keep the Lightning's shooters to the outside to avoid a repeat.