Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres — 2026-11-11

Wednesday, November 11, 2026Final
8–3
SOG: 22 – 31
Watch:TNTtruTVHBO MAX

SCORING SUMMARY

P1 1:11
Scott Sabourin(Conor Geekie, Jake Guentzel)
1–0
P1 0:22
John Carlson(Jake Guentzel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous)
2–0
5v4
P2 15:27
Brandon Hagel(Anthony Cirelli, John Carlson)
3–0
P2 6:58
Yanni Gourde(Jake Guentzel, Sam O'Reilly)
4–0
P2 4:06
Josh Doan(Ryan McLeod, Josh Norris)
4–1
4v5
P2 0:28
Jason Zucker(Noah Ostlund, Jack Quinn)
4–2
P3 19:27
Tage Thompson(Peyton Krebs, Mattias Samuelsson)
4–3
P3 18:35
Nikita Kucherov(Brandon Hagel, John Carlson)
5–3
P3 15:49
Nikita Kucherov(John Carlson, Anthony Cirelli)
6–3
P3 5:47
Nikita Kucherov(John Carlson, Jake Guentzel)
7–3
5v4
P3 4:54
Brandon Hagel(Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli)
8–3
TBL
BUF
Expected goals share

Dead even on chances — TBL 49%, BUF 51% of expected goals.

3.323.40
High-danger
1112
Chances
2229
Attempts
3461
Shots
2231
Shots by period
1ST
99
Even
2ND
47
BUF 64%
3RD
915
BUF 63%
Irons (Posts & Crossbars)
1
0
Possession
51.5%
Faceoff %
48.5%
1
Takeaways
0
17
Giveaways · fewer is better
13
Physical & discipline
33
Hits
17
10
Blocks
4
8
Penalty minutes · fewer is better
10
Special teams
Power play · filled = goal, hollow = chance
2 for 4
1 for 3

MA INSIGHTS

Game Summary

Lightning Light Up Buffalo's Crease in an 8-3 Romp

Kucherov buries a hat trick and Carlson piles up helpers while two Sabres goalies watch pucks find the back of the net

Buffalo had the puck far more often and fired far more at the net, and still got buried 8-3 at home by Tampa Bay. The score makes it look like a one-sided night. It wasn't. The difference was in the Sabres' crease.

The Sabres outshot the Lightning 31-22 and had 60 shot attempts to Tampa's 34. Yet the quality of chances was close to even: Buffalo's expected goals (how many goals its chances were worth) came to 3.4, Tampa's to 3.32. A game like that usually ends close.

It didn't because Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped just 9 of 14 shots before giving way. Colten Ellis then allowed 3 goals on 8 shots, on chances that were worth well under one goal. Combined, Buffalo's goalies gave up roughly four to five goals more than an average night would have.

At the other end, Andrei Vasilevskiy made 28 saves on 31 shots, and Tampa cashed in. Nikita Kucherov scored 3 goals with an assist, John Carlson had a goal and 4 assists, and Jake Guentzel added 4 helpers. Brandon Hagel, on a line with Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli, scored twice. Tampa even left one on the table when Ilya Mikheyev rang a post.

For Buffalo, now 8-6-3 and holding the last wild-card spot, the bounces and the saves simply went the other way.

— by MA Insights AI —
Read article →

IRON METRICS

TBL
1Iron Hit
Ilya Mikheyev (1)
BUF
0Iron Hits
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